Florida State and Clemson are all but guaranteed to start the season ranked in the top 5. Could home-field advantage determine who wins the ACC and makes the College Football Playoff?

Consider this stat: Over the last three years, Florida State leads the nation with a 21-0 record at home. The game between Florida State and Clemson is in Tallahassee, Florida, on Oct. 29. The teams have combined to win the last five ACC championships, so it is natural to project Clemson or Florida State will hoist the trophy again.

Clemson has not won at Doak Campbell Stadium since 2006. The last time the Tigers visited, Deshaun Watson was a true freshman and replaced an ineffective Cole Stoudt, nearly leading Clemson to the win. The quarterback on the other side? Sean Maguire, who started in place of the suspended Jameis Winston and threw for over 300 yards in the overtime victory.

Maguire is in an open competition to win the starting job for 2016. Meanwhile, Watson enters the year as a preseason favorite to win the Heisman. While Florida State has had a tremendous amount of success at home against both Clemson and its other opponents, Watson’s presence won’t make this one as easy as saying, “Florida State has home field, therefore it will win.”

Especially given the way he ended the season, with over 400 yards of offense in six of the final 10 games. Against Florida State in early November, he rallied his teammates to a come-from-behind win in the second half and ended up with 404 total yards.

Only once in those final nine games did he have fewer than 300 yards of offense. It came against Miami, when he was pulled early because the Tigers built such a huge lead on the way to a 58-0 victory.

So Watson is sure to give Clemson a huge edge in just about every game the Tigers play. The question then becomes — does he give Clemson the edge on the road against Florida State, too? Watson has never shown an ounce of intimidation or nervousness anywhere he has played — including Doak Campbell Stadium as a teenager two years ago.

But here is one more stat to consider: Watson has never beaten a top-ranked opponent on its home field. Of the five top-25 teams Watson started against in 2015, three were at neutral sites (North Carolina, Oklahoma, Alabama).

In 2014, he did not start but played against No. 12 Georgia and No. 1 Florida State on the road. Clemson lost both. He started against No. 22 Georgia Tech on the road but got hurt early in the game. The Tigers lost that one, too.

Watson returns to Tallahassee as one of the best quarterbacks in school history. He has talented skill players surrounding him. The defense has proven it doesn’t matter how many players it loses, it will be just fine the following season.

Florida State, on the other hand, could potentially be even better than Clemson on defense. DeMarcus Walker and Derwin James are All-American candidates. And oh, by the way, Florida State also has Dalvin Cook — one of the best players in the nation. Though the Seminoles haven’t settled on a starting quarterback yet, they have a loaded team ready to reclaim the ACC title and another spot in the College Football Playoff.

Home-field advantage could, indeed, become the deciding factor.